Daily research notes24 min read

Timing, Geometry, and the Limits of Gaussianity

Data × learning rate · Muon initialization · Graph tests · Kaplan scaling laws

Three main reads connect joint schedules, initialization geometry, and moment criteria for graph statistics. Fourteen briefs cover Muon, scaling, and post-training blogs. The classic revisits Kaplan scaling laws to separate data, model, step, and parallelism budgets.

MuonScaling lawsPost-trainingStatistics
Daily classic · 2020Kaplan scaling laws
Main read · subscribed-author preprintRead §§2–3, theoretical interpretation, and experimental setup; not reproduced

When good data enters depends on when the learning rate decays

Data Schedules and Learning Rate Schedules Should Be Designed Together
Haodong Wen · Kairong Luo · Tingkai Yan · Wenguang Chen · Kaifeng Lyu
First posted 2026-10-21 03:42 EDT · v1; listed October 22

Let γ(t) be the mid-training (MT) fraction and η(t) the learning rate. With compute and MT tokens fixed, introducing MT earlier can win under decay and lose under constant LR. [1]

γ allocates data; R is the cumulative learning rate available to MT-specific features
min⁡0≤γ(t)≤1E LMT(θT),∫0Tγ(t) dt≤αT,R(s)=∫sTη(t)γ(t) dt\min_{0\le\gamma(t)\le1}\mathbb E\,L_{\rm MT}(\theta_T),\qquad \int_0^T\gamma(t)\,dt\le\alpha T,\qquad R(s)=\int_s^T\eta(t)\gamma(t)\,dt

The explanation uses block-diagonal quadratics and additive gradient noise. Extract one MT-specific direction with curvature λ>0, initial value z₀, variance ν, and discrete-step interval h. [1]

One-direction form of the paper's linear SDE: bias followed by variance
dzt=−λη(t)γ(t)zt dt+η(t)hν dBt,EλzT22=λz022e−2λR(0)+hλν2∫0Tη(s)2e−2λR(s) dsdz_t=-\lambda\eta(t)\gamma(t)z_t\,dt+\eta(t)\sqrt{h\nu}\,dB_t,\qquad \mathbb E\frac{\lambda z_T^2}{2}=\frac{\lambda z_0^2}{2}e^{-2\lambda R(0)}+\frac{h\lambda\nu}{2}\int_0^T\eta(s)^2e^{-2\lambda R(s)}\,ds

With constant η, spending the budget fixes R(0); placing MT last maximizes every R(s), minimizing variance. Under decay, moving MT earlier also raises R(0), creating a bias–variance trade-off. [1]

SettingFixed budgetObservation
Dense 630M200B PT, then 20.97B tokens; MT 10% / 25% / 47.75%Full decay favors earlier mixing; constant LR favors final pure MT
2.99B MoE40B PT, then 4B or 10B tokensSchedule rankings also reverse
19 LR-duration scansData schedule fixed within each scanBest tested decay starts after MT entry
Outcome: final MT validation loss, rather than downstream capability or a universal recipe. [1]
Main read · new Muon preprintRead assumptions, Theorems 1–4, simulations, and LLM initialization experiments

Muon's initialization geometry: a diagonal mean is not a diagonal trajectory

How Does Orthogonalization Adapt to the Neural Network Hessian Structure? A Gradient Self Outer-Product Analysis at Initialization
Shenyang Deng · Garvit Goyal · Tianyu Pang · Shuhua Yu · Yaoqing Yang
First posted 2026-10-20 18:48 EDT · v1; listed October 22

The object is E[GGᵀ] over random initialization. It motivates compatibility with known row-block Hessian structure, without estimating Hessian values. [2]

Exact polar expression; †/2 denotes the pseudoinverse square root, while NS implementations are approximate
D=polar⁡(G)=(GG⊤)†/2G,HMuon=(GG⊤)1/2⊗ID=\operatorname{polar}(G)=(GG^\top)^{\dagger/2}G,\qquad H_{\rm Muon}=(GG^\top)^{1/2}\otimes I

For W∈Rᵈˣᵏ, G=(WWᵀ−M)W, fixed M⪰0, and independent N(0,1) weights, Wishart moments give the exact identity: [2]

Theorem 1: for fixed d and M, the leading diagonal is k³, with generic nonzero target off-diagonals of order k²
E[GG⊤]=a3I−2a2M+kM2,a2=k(k+d+1),a3=k3+3(d+1)k2+(d2+3d+4)k\mathbb E[GG^\top]=a_3I-2a_2M+kM^2,\quad a_2=k(k+d+1),\quad a_3=k^3+3(d+1)k^2+(d^2+3d+4)k
ModelExpected structure / orders
Deep-linear hidden layersE[GᵢGᵢᵀ] is exactly scalar I
Two-layer ReLUBoth diagonal/off-diagonal ratios grow as Θ(width)
Single-layer linear attentionQ, K, V have scalar-I expected Grams; O retains a target term
All statements require the paper's independent Gaussian initialization and model-specific assumptions. [2]
Main read · new Wharton-author preprintRead §1 main theorems, two-sample setting, and counterexample discussion

When the third moment detects Gaussianity better than the fourth

Third and Fourth Moment Phenomena for Monochromatic Edges and Applications to Graph-Based Two-Sample Tests
Siva Athreya · Bhaswar B. Bhattacharya · Yogesh Dahiya · Karambir Das · Spandan Ghoshal · Sourish Maniyar · Elizabeth Sara Roy
First posted 2026-10-21 01:15 EDT · v1

Graph two-sample tests count between-group edges in a pooled similarity graph. Under the Poissonized null, conditioning on locations gives independent Bernoulli(p) labels. Balanced and unbalanced proportions require different Gaussian criteria. [3]

Simple undirected graphs; independent Bernoulli(p) labels with fixed p∈(0,1)
Tn=∑{i,j}∈E(Gn)1{Xi=Xj},Un=Tn−ETnVar⁡(Tn),∣E(Gn)∣→∞T_n=\sum_{\{i,j\}\in E(G_n)}\mathbf1\{X_i=X_j\},\qquad U_n=\frac{T_n-\mathbb ET_n}{\sqrt{\operatorname{Var}(T_n)}},\qquad |E(G_n)|\to\infty
Label proportionMoment criterion equivalent to Uₙ⇒N(0,1)
p≠1/2 and p≠(1±1/√3)/2E[Uₙ³]→0, or E[Uₙ⁴]→3
p=(1±1/√3)/2E[Uₙ³]→0; the fourth-moment criterion loses discrimination
p=1/2E[Uₙ⁴]→3; the third moment alone is insufficient
Theorem 1.1; the exceptional p values are essential. [3]

A star graph explains the exception: conditioning on its center leaves a two-point limit. This is a simplified derivation of the paper's star example. [3]

Z is the two-point limit: fourth moment 3 does not make its distribution Gaussian
Un⇒sgn⁡(2p−1)X−pp(1−p),EZ4=1p(1−p)−3=3if p(1−p)=16U_n\Rightarrow \operatorname{sgn}(2p-1)\frac{X-p}{\sqrt{p(1-p)}},\qquad \mathbb E Z^4=\frac1{p(1-p)}-3=3\quad\text{if }p(1-p)=\frac16
BriefRead v2 method and C4 setup; version diff not fully checked

HyMUON combines long-history averaging with a fast EMA

Hybrid Momentum Methods for Optimizing Deep Learning Models
Haifeng Xu · Yijin Ren · Chenyu Zhou · Qi Deng · Dongdong Ge · Yinyu Ye
First October 20; v2 October 21 05:25 EDT; overlap-window addition

HyM blends long-history averaging with fast momentum; HyMUON then applies NS. LLaMA-1.3B/C4 at 10k steps gives validation loss 2.777 versus 2.903. HyMUON is tuned and evaluates averaged iterates; Muon uses previously selected settings and training iterates. The v2 note concerns author order/affiliations; no substantive new result is confirmed. [4]

BriefRead abstract and Muon-related experimental passages

Kinetic Muon: the step map changes period-two stability

Physics-Inspired Optimizers beyond the Edge of Stability: Period-Two Orbits and Delayed Instability
Alexander Itin
First October 19 17:40 EDT · v1; overlap-window addition

Kinetic maps wrap update directions, including Muon. In the reduced model, period-two linear stability requires step-length elasticity in (0,1). Many ResNet-18 gains can be reproduced by matching effective LR, so default-LR comparisons are insufficient. [5]

BriefBased on the original abstract

Long-context continuation separates short- and long-context budgets

Don't Stop Long-Context Continual Pre-Training Too Early: An Empirical Scaling Law
Ziqing Qiao · Xiaoyue Xu · Sikui Zhang · Yinuo Xu · Bingxiang He · Chaojun Xiao · Xu Han
First October 21 03:46 EDT · v1

Five model scales and over 100 budget configurations support an additive power law. Constant-Last4 averages the latest four constant-LR checkpoints. A 1.22B trajectory at about 100B LCCP tokens shows no clear saturation within that range, rather than indefinitely. [6]

BriefBased on abstract

Harness diversity as another RL scaling axis

Harness Scaling for Generalizable Agentic Reinforcement Learning
Fei Bai · Huatong Song · Chuan Hao · Ran Tao · Jian Yang · Bryan Dai · Wayne Xin Zhao · Ji-Rong Wen
First October 21 05:15 EDT · v1

A factorized configuration space and balanced factorial coverage create a compact cross-harness curriculum. The authors report transfer to unseen white-box configurations and external black-box harnesses; the abstract does not establish a universal power-law exponent. [7]

BriefBased on abstract

Pixel LMs: languages, scripts, and capacity scale differently

Scaling Multilingual Pretraining of Pixel Language Models
Ilker Kesen · Jenny Kunz · Kasra Malihi · Desmond Elliott
First October 21 08:57 EDT · v1

At fixed per-language compute, three axes are evaluated on five tasks and 83 languages. Capacity mitigates multilingual interference; language/script expansion helps locally, while unseen-script transfer does not keep improving with scale. [8]

BriefBased on abstract

Virtual-world CPT: diversity has limits for distant transfer

Scaling in Games: Continued Pre-Training For Embodied Agents In Diverse Virtual Worlds
Kuan Zhang · Yukun Chen · Zhihao Yang · Yue Su · Xiangnan Wu · Zirong Chen · Run Luo · Jinkun Hou · Tao Tan · Yinhe Zheng · Yiming Li
First October 20 07:09 EDT · v1; overlap-window addition

120 configurations span 0.8B–27B, 50–1,600 hours, and five mixtures. Diversity helps related-world transfer but has limited distant-world gains; larger single-world models can transfer worse. The authors distinguish early interface learning from later world-specific learning. [9]

BriefBased on abstract

Fewer biased answers may mean more Unknown responses

Effects of Model Scale and Quantization on Social Bias and Abstention in Question Answering
Kuniko Paxton · Ifeoluwa Wuraola · Dhavalkumar Thakker
First October 21 · v1

On BBQ, larger Qwen3/Gemma-3/SmolLM2 models improve accuracy without a simple bias-scaling trend. Of 26 configurations with fewer biased responses, 20 also increase over-abstention, making refusal and forced-choice controls essential. [10]

BriefBased on abstract

After failure: more compute, information, or feedback?

Where Should a Stuck Agent Spend Its Next Tokens? Causal Attribution of Inference-Time Resources
Saiyue Lyu · Jerrold Huang · Yunbei Zhang · Janet Wang · Zhenting Wang · Yingqiang Ge · Haibo Zhang
First October 20 14:59 EDT · v1; overlap-window addition

BRA fixes the failed state and revision protocol: six models, 194 function-level and 126 repository-level failures. Specifications help consistently; compute's value declines with capability. Three of four frontier models overwhelmingly choose feedback yet gain less than random resource selection. [11]

BriefBased on abstract

Low-temperature synthetic-data sharpening and high-temperature dreaming

Mitigating Model Collapse through Dreaming Learning
Matteo Benati · Alessandro Londei · Denise Lanzieri · Raffaello Mastromarino · Vittorio Loreto
First October 21 12:41 EDT · v1

In a controlled Markov model, recursive Tₛ<1 sampling moves subdominant eigenvalues toward the unit circle, even with data accumulation. A T_d>1 self-sampling regularizer mitigates drift over 5,000 generations and in LSTM/GPT-2 124M tests, without a general LLM guarantee. [12]

BriefBased on abstract

BRACE forecasts within-group reward contrast before generation

Measure First, Then Allocate: Calibrated Rollout Budgets for MCP Agents in Reinforcement Learning
Hieu Tran · Zonghai Yao · Sunjae Kwon · Hong Yu
First October 20 14:15 EDT · v1; overlap-window addition

Historical evidence, success-rate uncertainty, and correlated rewards predict mixed-reward groups before allocation. At three Qwen3-VL scales, fewer new rollouts exceed baseline peaks. Historical-bank collection is accounted for separately, so this is not the same reduction in total training cost. [13]

BriefBased on abstract; small empirical study

MemoryTax: a stronger reader cannot recover what a writer discarded

MemoryTax: The Bitter Lesson of Agent Memory
Zedong Peng
First October 21 10:46 EDT · v1

One LoCoMo conversation, 152 questions, one run per cell compare memory methods across three model capabilities. Writer quality limits designed memory. Photo-caption access explains part of the agent advantage; on 88 photo-free questions, Pi and full context differ by one answer. [14]

BriefRead full technical blog; not every experiment in the linked paper

GRAFT routes gradients with monitor flags, then removes FORGET

Reducing Reward Hacking by Localizing Bad Behavior Instead of Penalizing It
Shawn Hu · Jake Ward · Aria Wong · Nathan Hu · Bryce Woodworth · Alexander Matt Turner · Alex Cloud
Published October 19; overlap-window addition

Flagged trajectories update only FORGET; unflagged ones update both adapters, with RETAIN-only anchor training. Removing FORGET gives near-zero hacking and nearly +20pp correctness over base in Qwen3-8B/Countdown-Code. RL uses handcrafted monitors and single turns; constructing anchors remains a limitation. [15]

BriefRead technical synthesis; not a new algorithm or controlled benchmark

An agent-training roadmap: supervision granularity and rollout bottlenecks

A curriculum for post-training agents
Ben Burtenshaw · Sergio Paniego · Merve Noyan
Published October 20; overlap-window addition

The synthesis connects SFT, distillation, single-turn RL, stateful environments, and full harnesses. Supervision shifts from token probabilities to trajectory outcomes, while long-episode generation becomes the bottleneck. It links corresponding TRL/OpenEnv/AsyncGRPO implementations. [16]

BriefRead method, split description, and main results

ALTK-Evolve distills training-task outcomes into guidelines

ALTK-Evolve: How learned memory tops the τ²-bench leaderboard on customer service tasks without a frontier model
Ashwath Vaithinathan Aravindan · Vatche Isahagian · Vinod Muthusamy · Jayaram Radhakrishnan · Evelyn Duesterwald et al.
Published October 20; overlap-window addition

GPT-4.1 extracts rules from training trajectories, then freezes them for held-out prompts without weight updates. Retail Pass^4 is 67.5%—all four trials succeed, not pass@4. The leaderboard snapshot is October 12, and longer guidelines increase token use. [17]

Daily classic · historical paperRead §1.2 and §§4–6 with fitting setup; empirical laws, not universal theorems

Kaplan scaling laws: identify the resource that limits loss

Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models
Jared Kaplan · Sam McCandlish · Tom Henighan · Tom B. Brown · Benjamin Chess · Rewon Child · Scott Gray · Alec Radford · Jeffrey Wu · Dario Amodei
First 2020-01-22 22:59 EST (January 23 UTC); read v1; year refers to the technical report
Foundational scaling-laws work; OpenAlex record: 1,745 citations (checked 2026-10-22) ↗

After Transformers (2017) and GPT-2 (2019), the allocation question was larger models versus longer training. This work relates WebText2 token cross-entropy to non-embedding parameters N, data D, steps S, and tokens per step B. [18]

Each empirical fit requires the other resources not to bind; the three laws cannot simply be multiplied
L(N)≃(Nc/N)0.076,L(D)≃(Dc/D)0.095,L(Cmin⁡)≃(Cc/Cmin⁡)0.050L(N)\simeq(N_c/N)^{0.076},\qquad L(D)\simeq(D_c/D)^{0.095},\qquad L(C_{\min})\simeq(C_c/C_{\min})^{0.050}
The joint fit recovers a single-resource law when one term dominates
L(N,D)=[(NcN)αN/αD+DcD]αDL(N,D)=\left[\left(\frac{N_c}{N}\right)^{\alpha_N/\alpha_D}+\frac{D_c}{D}\right]^{\alpha_D}
Learning curves are fitted after warmup; Sₘᵢₙ adjusts for batch size
L(N,Smin⁡)=(NcN)αN+(ScSmin⁡)αS,αN≃0.077,αS≃0.76L(N,S_{\min})=\left(\frac{N_c}{N}\right)^{\alpha_N}+\left(\frac{S_c}{S_{\min}}\right)^{\alpha_S},\qquad \alpha_N\simeq0.077,\quad\alpha_S\simeq0.76
Actual FLOPs differ from adjusted minimum compute; the model includes parallelism efficiency
Bcrit(L)≃B∗L−1/αB,αB≃0.21,Smin⁡=S1+Bcrit/B,Cmin⁡=6NBS1+B/BcritB_{\rm crit}(L)\simeq B_*L^{-1/\alpha_B},\quad\alpha_B\simeq0.21,\qquad S_{\min}=\frac{S}{1+B_{\rm crit}/B},\qquad C_{\min}=\frac{6NBS}{1+B/B_{\rm crit}}
Allocation exponents follow from the fitted training model, rather than guessing from three one-dimensional curves
αC=(αN−1+αB−1+αS−1)−1,N∝Cmin⁡αC/αN,B∝Cmin⁡αC/αB,Smin⁡∝Cmin⁡αC/αS\alpha_C=\left(\alpha_N^{-1}+\alpha_B^{-1}+\alpha_S^{-1}\right)^{-1},\qquad N\propto C_{\min}^{\alpha_C/\alpha_N},\quad B\propto C_{\min}^{\alpha_C/\alpha_B},\quad S_{\min}\propto C_{\min}^{\alpha_C/\alpha_S}
TypeN exponentB exponentSₘᵢₙ exponent
Direct empirical allocation0.730.240.03
Joint-model predictionabout 0.71about 0.26about 0.07
Section 6: predicted and empirical exponents differ; empirical D=BS grows roughly as Cₘᵢₙ^0.27. [18]

READ THE ORIGINALS

Original sources

  1. Joint data/LR schedules · §§2–3
  2. Muon initialization Gram · assumptions, theorems, experiments
  3. Monochromatic-edge moments · §1 theorems and star example
  4. HyMUON · v2 abstract/method and revision note
  5. Kinetic maps · abstract and Muon-related text
  6. Long-context scaling · original abstract
  7. Harness Scaling · original abstract
  8. Pixel LM scaling · original abstract
  9. Virtual-world CPT scaling · original abstract
  10. Scale, bias, abstention · original abstract
  11. Inference-resource attribution · original abstract
  12. Dreaming Learning · original abstract
  13. BRACE · original abstract and budget boundary
  14. MemoryTax · original abstract and sample boundary
  15. GRAFT · authors' technical blog
  16. Agent post-training · Hugging Face technical synthesis
  17. ALTK-Evolve · IBM authors' blog
  18. Kaplan scaling laws · historical original, §§1, 4–6
  19. OpenAlex citation record · checked 2026-10-22
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2026-10-19 11:15 — 2026-10-22 11:15 · America/New_York

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