1.3 The Law of Large Numbers and the Central Limit Theorem
1.3.1 Strong Law of Large Numbers
We will give three versions (4th moment SLLN, 2nd moment SLLN and SLLN).
If \(EX = \mu \), applying the theorem to \(X - \mu \) shows that \(S_n/n \to \mu \) a.s.
Proof. \begin{align*} ES_n^4 &=\sum _i \sum _j \sum _k \sum _l E[X_i X_j X_k X_l]\\ &= nEX^4 + \binom {4}{2}\binom {n}{2} E[X_1^2 X_2^2] \\ &= nEX^4 + 3n(n-1) \underbrace {(EX^2)^2}_{\leq EX^4} \end{align*}
since \((EY)^2 \leq E(Y^2)\). Fix \(\varepsilon > 0\). \begin{align*} P\left (\left |\frac {S_n}{n}\right | \geq \varepsilon \right ) &\leq E\left |\frac {S_n}{n}\right |^4 \cdot \frac {1}{\varepsilon ^4} \\ &\leq \varepsilon ^{-4} n^{-4} \cdot 3n^2 EX^4 \\ &\leq 3\varepsilon ^{-4} EX^4 n^{-2} \end{align*}
This implies that \[ \sum _n P\left (\left |\frac {S_n}{n}\right | \geq \varepsilon \right ) \leq \sum _n 3\varepsilon ^{-4} EX^4 n^{-2} < \infty \] By Borel-Cantelli Lemma 1.19, \(S_n/n \to 0\) a.s. We used the fact that \(s^4 = |s|^4\) and \(s^2 = |s|^2\), but this does not work for the third moment: \(s^3 \neq |s|^3\). □
Proof. Since \(\operatorname {var}(S_n) \leq nB\), Chebyshev’s inequality implies \[ P\left (\frac {|S_n|}{n} \geq \varepsilon \right ) \leq \frac {nB}{n^2 \varepsilon ^2} = \frac {B}{n\varepsilon ^2} \] Take \(n(j) = j^2\). \[ P\left (\left |\frac {S_{n(j)}}{n(j)}\right | \geq \varepsilon \right ) \leq \frac {B}{\varepsilon ^2} \frac {1}{j^2} \] Use Borel-Cantelli 1.19. \[ \frac {S_{n(j)}}{n(j)} \to 0 \quad \text {a.s.} \quad \text {as } j \to \infty \] It is enough to prove \(D_j / j^2 \to 0\) a.s., for \[ D_j = \max _{j^2 \leq n < (j+1)^2} |S_n - S_{j^2}| \] Then \[ D_j^2 = \max _{j^2 \leq n < (j+1)^2} (S_n - S_{j^2})^2 \] \[ ED_j^2 \underset {\text {crude}}{\leq } \sum _{n=j^2}^{(j+1)^2 - 1} E(S_n - S_{j^2})^2 \] Since \[ E(S_n - S_{j^2})^2 = \operatorname {var}\left (\sum _{j^2+1}^{n} X_i\right ) \leq B(n - j^2) \] Letting \(n = j^2 + i\), we have \[ ED_j^2 \leq B \sum _{i=1}^{2j+1} i = \frac {1}{2}(2j+1)(2j+2)B \] We have \[ P\left (\frac {D_j}{j^2} \geq \varepsilon \right ) \leq \frac {ED_j^2}{\varepsilon ^2 j^4} \in O(j^{-2}) \] Borel-Cantelli Lemma 1.19 implies that \(D_j / j^2 \to 0\) as \(j \to \infty \). □
First prove some lemmas. We’ll use 1.31 and truncate + center techniques.
Proof. Define \(M_k = \sup _{n > k} \left |\sum _{i=k+1}^{n} X_i\right |\). It is enough to show that \(M_k \to 0\) a.s. as \(k \to \infty \). Define also \(W_k = \sup _{n_2 > n_1 > k} \left |\sum _{i=n_1+1}^{n_2} X_i\right |\) and note that \(M_k \leq W_k \leq 2M_k\) and \(W_k\) decreases as \(k\) increases. \[ P\left (\sup _{k < n \leq N} \left |\sum _{i=k+1}^{N} X_i\right | \geq \varepsilon \right ) \underset {martingale \ maximal \ ineq.}{\leq } \varepsilon ^{-2} \operatorname {var}\left (\sum _{i=k+1}^{N} X_i\right ) = \varepsilon ^{-2} \sum _{i=k+1}^{N} \sigma _i^2 \]
Taking \(N \to \infty \), \(P(M_k > \varepsilon ) \leq \varepsilon ^{-2} \sum _{i=k+1}^{\infty } \sigma _i^2\). \[ P(W_k > \varepsilon ) \leq P\left (M_k > \frac {\varepsilon }{2}\right ) \leq 4\varepsilon ^{-2} \sum _{i=k+1}^{\infty } \sigma _i^2 \to 0 \text { as } k \to \infty \]
Taking \(k \to \infty \), then \(W_k \downarrow W_\infty \) for some \(W_\infty \) a.s. Then \(P(W_\infty > \varepsilon ) = 0\), which implies that \(W_\infty = 0\) a.s., which implies that \(W_k \downarrow 0\) a.s. and \(M_k \to 0\) a.s. □
Proof. Theorem 1.29 implies that \(\sum _n X_n / a_n\) converges a.s. Then Lemma 1.30 implies that \(S_n / a_n \to 0\) a.s. □
Proof of Theorem 1.28. The idea is to truncate, center, and then apply 9.4.
If \(Z \geq 0\), then \[ EZ^k = \int _0^{\infty } kz^{k-1} P(Z \geq z) \, dz. \]
Define \(Y_k = X_k 1_{(|X_k| \leq k)}\). Then \[ \sum _k P(Y_k \neq X_k) = \sum _{k=1}^{\infty } P(|X| > k) \leq \int _0^{\infty } P(|X| > x) \, dx = E|X| < \infty . \]
Then Borel-Cantelli Lemma 1.19 implies that \(P(Y_k = X_k, \text { ultimately}) = 1\). It is enough to prove that \((1/n) \sum _{k=1}^{n} Y_k \to EX\) a.s.
Center: define \(X_k' = Y_k - EY_k\). Claim: \(\sum _k \operatorname {var}(X_k')/k^2 < \infty \). \begin{align*} EY_k^2 &= \int _0^{\infty } 2y P(|Y_k| > y) \, dy = \int _0^{\infty } \underbrace {2y P(k \geq |X_k| \geq y) 1_{(y \leq k)}}_{\text {Check this!}} \, dy \\ &\leq \int _0^{\infty } 2y P(|X_k| \geq y) 1_{(y \leq k)} \, dy \end{align*}
Claim: \(G(y) \leq 4\), for all \(0 < y < \infty \). Since \(G(y) \leq \sum _k 1/k^2 \leq 2\) for \(y \leq 1\), this is true for \(y \leq 1\). Take \(y > 1\). \[ \frac {1}{k^2} \leq \int _{k-1}^{k} \frac {1}{x^2} \, dx \] so \[ \sum _k \frac {1}{k^2} 1_{(y \leq k)} = \sum _{k \geq \lceil y \rceil } \frac {1}{k^2} \leq \int _{\lceil y \rceil - 1}^{\infty } \frac {1}{x^2} \, dx = \frac {1}{\lceil y \rceil - 1} \]
Since \(y > 1\), \[ G(y) \leq \frac {2y}{\lceil y \rceil - 1} \leq 4. \] Then \[ \sum _k \frac {\operatorname {var}(X_k')}{k^2} \leq 4 \int _0^{\infty } P(|X| \geq y) \, dy = 4E|X| < \infty \]
Apply 1.31 to \((X_n')\): \((1/n) \sum _{i=1}^{n} X_i' \to 0\) a.s., so \((1/n) \sum _{i=1}^{n} (Y_i - EY_i) \to 0\) a.s. Note that \[ EY_i = EX 1_{(|X| \leq i)} \to EX \] as \(i \to \infty \). By dominated convergence, \((1/n) \sum _{i=1}^{n} (EY_i - EX) \to 0\) a.s. Add the two equations to get \((1/n) \sum _{i=1}^{n} (Y_i - EX) \to 0\) a.s., which implies that \((1/n) \sum _{i=1}^{n} Y_i \to EX\) a.s. □
1.3.2 Central Limit Theorem
Proof. WLOG take \(\mu = 0\). It is enough to show \[ \underbrace {\phi _{S_n/\sqrt {n}}(t)}_{\text {Left}} \to \exp \left (-\frac {\sigma ^2 t^2}{2}\right ). \]
Also, \[ \phi _{S_n/\sqrt {n}}(t) = \left (\phi _X\left (\frac {t}{\sqrt {n}}\right )\right )^n = \left (1 + \frac {n(\phi _X(t/\sqrt {n}) - 1)}{n}\right )^n. \]
It is enough to show \(n(\phi _X(t/\sqrt {n}) - 1) \to \sigma ^2 t^2 / 2\). The bound for \(n = 2\) and \(EX = 0\) is \[ \left |\phi _X(s) - \left (1 - \frac {s^2 \sigma ^2}{2}\right )\right | = o(s^2). \]
Then, with \(s = t/\sqrt {n}\), \[ \text {Left} = n\left (\frac {t^2}{n}\frac {\sigma ^2}{2} + o\left (\frac {t^2}{n}\right )\right ) = \frac {t^2 \sigma ^2}{2} + n \cdot o\left (\frac {t^2}{n}\right ) \to \frac {t^2 \sigma ^2}{2}. {\qquad\square} \] □